Credit & Political Risk: Underwriting Long-Term Trends Amidst Short-Term Events Whiplash

Hugo Cruz

Head of Country, Credit & Portfolio Risk Management - Financial Risk Solutions

at Liberty Specialty Markets

During this session, the speaker will explore the tension between short-term political and economic shocks and the slower-moving but ultimately more impactful long-term trends shaping credit and political risk. The presentation will examine how demographic shifts, climate change, interest rate regimes, and the cost of capital are reshaping the underwriting landscape - often in ways that are obscured by headline-driven volatility.

The session will highlight the challenges actuaries face in determining when to adjust model assumptions and how to distinguish between cyclical noise and structural change